SODAS Data Discussion 3 (Spring 2026)

Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science.

Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides.

Discussion 1

Presenter: Kelton Minor

Title: Temperature and the Spectra of Mental Health

Abstract:

Are you "hot tempered", "cold minded", or perhaps just a "warm person"? Consider looking outside for the answer, fair-weather friend. Since time immemorial humans have attributed psychological characteristics and mental states to fluctuations in weather, a point immortalized in our language, early texts like Hippocrates' 400 BCE medical treatise "On Airs, Waters, and Places", and in Indigenous knowledge. Following a period of well-grounded scholarly backlash to so-called Hippocratic climate determinism, recent statistical advances in spatiotemporal causal inference have enabled careful re-examination of a more qualified version of this question: To what marginal extent might weather conditions alter mental health net of other background, seasonal and other causes? In a warming world, this question is not just relevant to inform humanity's ongoing adaptation to a variable climate, but to prepare for the rising tide of temperatures implied by a changing one. Yet despite the breadth of mental health spectra, most of what we know about the sensitivity of mental health to temperature is clinical in nature and does not capture instances of mental distress that transpire outside of healthcare facilities – rendering them invisible to health registers and epidemiologists. To address this gap, we conduct a large-scale natural experiment linking ~40 million mental health crisis calls from a large national service line with daily temperature data registered between 2005 – 2022. Our results reveal novel subclinical mental health responses to temperature and imply that efforts to quantify the mental health burden of climatic conditions are incomplete. They should consider the full spectra of mental health impacts that may be prevalent in populations.

Discussion 2

Presenter: Sandro Sousa

Title: Complex Spatial Patterns of Climate and Conflict-Induced Displacements

Abstract:

Large-scale population displacements are increasingly driven by extreme weather events and violent conflicts. While gravity and radiation models have been used to estimate migration flows, these approaches are largely static and provide limited insight into the dynamic, path-dependent processes underlying human mobility during shocks. We propose a diffusion-based approach to characterise how hazard exposure propagates through displacement flow networks, by analysing the statistical properties of walks that explore a directed network constructed from real displacements. The exposure profiles produced by the walks reveal how different hazard types are structured across the displacement system, identifying the risks that internally displaced persons are likely to encounter as they move through the network. As a proof of concept, we apply this method to Somalia's detailed displacement-tracking matrix, containing 20,220 movements from February 8 to June 18, 2025. We analyse the path-dependent exposure of displaced persons as they move through areas affected by conflict or climate hazards. We find that individuals following the most likely displacement chains based on current flows would experience mainly droughts and conflicts, with the latter becoming less prominent at each subsequent step. We also find that the probability of conflict and drought across all trajectories is widely dispersed, indicating no typical exposure. This preliminary work provides a framework for understanding how the topology of displacement flows distributes hazard risk, and for estimating future exposure in regions expected to face increasing hazards.